Distribution : Are Theaters Really “Dying”… or Are We Just Thinking About Them the Wrong Way? by Ashley Renée Smith

I rarely see a packed theater where I live, but I also mostly watch films in Original Version, and unfortunately those screenings tend to attract much smaller audiences.

What I see instead is that people still show up for the cheapest, safest, most heavily marketed films, while more distinctive work often gets ignored. I’ve even seen audiences walk out of something like "Project Hail Mary" because it asked for more attention than they were willing to give.

To me, that is part of the real problem: cinema has become expensive enough to feel like a luxury. You cannot go see a movie every week anymore if you ache for it. And the overall quality of what dominates mainstream screens often doesn’t justify the high prizes. Too much space goes to reboots, sequels, and recognition titles. I’m already dreading films like "Practical Magic 2" or "The Devil Wears Prada 2". I am gonna watch them at home but I am scared that they favor star appeal over storytelling.

The places that still make cinema feel alive to me are the smaller theaters showing some indie films. The problem is that many people barely know those films exist.

The next movies I am excited to see are: "The Wizard of the Kremlin", "The History of Sound", "I Love Boosters", and "The Love That Remains".

I wonder if the new Rocky Horror Picture Show reboot on Broadway will get a big screen remake. Let’s do the Time Warp again!!

Excellent points. I'd add that one under-talked about reason the "theaters are dying" narrative even exists isn't because audiences stopped showing up, it's because the theatrical middle class is vanishing. Franchise IP accounted for 73% of domestic revenue last year [AMW Film Statistics] and IMAX alone pulled $1.28 billion globally [SlashFilm], so the top end is thriving while everything else struggles to justify a theatrical run. Dune 70mm tickets being scalped for up to $1,000 [Dark Horizons] and the domestic box office being up 15.2% this year [Fortune] prove your event-driven theory exactly, but that success is masking the mid-tier films that are quietly disappearing from screens. Theaters aren't dying, but they might be hollowing out from the middle. Personally, The Odyssey in IMAX is the one I'm already planning around, which kind of proves the point all by itself.

The dark room, the shared experience, the complete focus, the pick n mix! Some films are just better on a big screen, and the occasion of going is still wonderful. But it's expensive. People are time-poor. And they know it'll be on their TV so soon, which makes waiting much easier. The 'event' aspect definitely helps drive attendance. It does all make it even harder for smaller films - though I've been at some packed screenings of those too, which is always extra special.

I think you're exactly right—theaters aren't dying, they're just becoming more of a destination for event cinema, and that shift actually plays to the strength of younger audiences. Gen Z is currently the demographic with the highest rate of moviegoing, and they consistently show up for films that feel like shared cultural moments: Dune, Scream, Project Hail Mary. We're not abandoning theaters, but other audiences are more selective, especially if they don't buy into the subscription theater chains offer. They want spectacle, community, and something worth leaving the house for.

Thanks for this discussion Ashley Renée Smith. Personally I don’t think theaters are dying but like so much of our world it’s certainly going thru major changes and will continue to evolve like it always has. For my family, the movie theater has become an experience that is rare and treasured. Mostly because of the price point. For a family of five, we spend almost $100 with shared popcorn. That isn’t sustainable for high attendance numbers with gas and food prices soaring. That being said, the feeling we get watching on the big screen can’t be duplicated. I really wish there were more discount theaters. Imagine all the films we’d be able to see that didn’t get huge premiers!

Ashley Renée Smith I think there is an overall shakeup in the industry, but I believe the cinematic experience can never be replaced. If so, why are we, as members of the Producers Guild of America, flocking to see the Award contenders on the big screen? There is nothing like the shared experience of something special. The issue is the ticket prices and the high cost of popcorn, etc. And just the overall laziness of the Studios and Theatre owners to bring back the feeling of the experience.

I agree with Whitney. They're only event driven because prices for tickets and concessions are legitimately absurd. No popcorn or soda should ever cost more than $5. They're price gouging a bit too much this stage.

But still, until I can fit a 70 foot screen in my living room, there will always be a need for movie theaters. Movies are meant to be watched on big screens. They're way more awesome that way.

It is refreshing to read today's LA Times piece ""Movie Theaters Finally Emerge From the Shadows of the Pandemic". Box office is up 23% from a year ago. Other positive stats and observations touch upon the big issue -- are audiences still around? Obviously the answer is yes; they just need a reason to spend $100+ for tickets, parking and popcorn versus watching a new Netflix release at home for $19.99 (ad-free). And therein lies the question for screenwriters who are not hired to write the latest IP reboot (most of you) or who are not filmmakers with clout who can get their own original ideas greenlit (most of you) -- how do I get noticed (read) by the industry so that my project can get bought/financed/packaged? I'll keep the answer simple as it relates to how I manage my clients' careers. Give yourself the best shot to be read by the largest number of producers because this means the greatest chance for new fans. And fans (the other "F' word) is what you want. For many, this answer says it all as it reflects how genre and high concept (re original spec scripts) will always have appeal to producers and buyers because there is a long history of genre and high concept original ideas connecting with audiences. Call it data, call it self delusion, call it dealing w fear. Call it whatever you want whether you agree with the decision makers. As a rep, I call it like I see it. Give my clients the best shot to be read by the largest swath of producers because this gives my clients the greatest opportunity to have their project noticed and possibly bought/financed/packaged. "International B.O." weighs more heavily than ever in the decision-making for they who write checks (buyers/financiers) and so an understanding of this mindset should not be dismissed as you bang your head against the wall re what to write next. Of course there are countless examples of misses (audiences didn't show up) re genre and high concept but there is always data to support the counter. Which is not my intention to be a contrarian. You need not be a gambler to understand this industry is a numbers game in so many ways. And so stacking the odds in your favor is a smart strategy. Or at least not a dumb one. Having said this, nobody knows anything and so you must write what YOU are excited and passionate about. Voice absolutely matters in terms of winning fans of your writing. But all things being equal, if there is a chance to give yourself any edge in the very challenging landscape of getting your script read/noticed, why not at least consider this strategy for your next original spec script. Then again nobody knows anything.

You’re right in that the theater experience isn’t disappearing but merely evolving. There is truly nothing that can replace the theatrical experience, especially for a major cinematic spectacle like the films you’ve mentioned. As a producer, it is great to see not only the theaters evolve, but also the filmmakers and audiences. It is forcing creatives, producers, and execs to think outside the box and create films that maximize the audience experience in way of visuals, sound, color, story, and its impact overall. It’s also refreshing to know that audiences are responding to that; they recognize certain films simply NEED to be experienced on the big screen. Let's keep making those!

I think that shift toward event-driven viewing is real — but it also raises a different question on the development side.

If audiences are becoming more selective about what they show up for, then it’s not just about scale or spectacle — it’s about whether the story is built to hold attention as an experience, not just as content.

Some projects feel designed for immersion — they create a kind of sustained pressure that justifies the theatrical space.

Others might still work well, but they don’t demand it.

So it’s almost less about theaters “dying” and more about a separation happening at the structural level — between stories that can carry that weight, and those that naturally move toward smaller screens.

Curious how much you’re seeing that distinction in development — where projects start to be shaped differently depending on how they’re expected to be experienced.

Michael! Definitely want to see it in the theater. I have an advanced ticket for the 22nd - although I may have another event to go to...but will see it in the theater for sure. Once I get to the theater - cause sure there can be a lot of reasons not to go - I remember why I love being there!

Ashley Renée Smith I agree. The market for movies is always there. It was even here during the pandemic. It's just that some of the tentpoles didn't perform as well as desired. We as creative need to support the movie industry by putting our best foot forward to make great content. As for me, I'm anticipating all of the big tentpole movies coming out this year and can't wait to see them..

I simply can't see theaters going away forever Ashley Renée Smith, Yes, deal with the issue of concessions (good grief) but we as a family will never give it up. Sorry (not sorry) but I can stop by Whole Foods for a bag of chocolate covered almonds until that's dealt with. Is there a shift towards indie or event-driven releases? Sure. And overall, there's just a sense that things are changing. Growth and change always hurts and I feel horrible for those who have lost their jobs or are struggling. But I'm choosing to hold out hope that whatever change is coming will end up for the better of us all.

As far as what movies I am stoked for...The Odyssey and Godzilla Minus Zero!

Hope everyone is having an amazing weekend!

Audiences are becoming selective.

Because audiences are being starved of American cinema.

What’s being framed right now as a theatrical “comeback”—Dune: Part Three selling out IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick dominating globally—isn’t a resurgence of cinema.

It’s the consolidation of spectacle.

A system retreating into scale, familiarity, and exportability.

Because what’s missing isn’t audience interest.

What’s missing is voice.

There was a time when American cinema actually reflected America—its contradictions, its tensions, its moral confusion, its identity.

The Godfather didn’t just tell a story about crime—it told a story about power, family, and the American dream turned inward on itself.

Taxi Driver didn’t just follow a character—it exposed isolation, violence, and a society unraveling beneath the surface.

Apocalypse Now wasn’t just a war film—it was a descent into the psychology of a nation at war with itself.

Do the Right Thing didn’t avoid tension—it forced it into the open.

Those films weren’t safe.

They weren’t globally flattened.

They were specific. Personal. Authored.

They had something to say about this country—and they said it without compromise.

That’s what American cinema was.

And that’s what feels absent now.

Because what dominates the theatrical landscape—

Jurassic World Dominion

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Scream VI

—is not American cinema.

It’s globally optimized content.

Designed to translate. Designed to travel. Designed to perform.

But in that process, it loses specificity.

It loses friction.

It loses the ability to say anything real about where it comes from.

Different skins. Same skeleton.

And the studios—run by executives more invested in predictable returns than cultural expression—have no incentive to change that.

Because specificity is risky.

Authorship is risky.

Truth is risky.

So it gets filtered out.

What remains is something safer, flatter, and infinitely repeatable.

And over time, that erodes the relationship between cinema and culture.

Even the medium itself reflects this shift.

Film projection lived in the gap—persistence of vision, the phi phenomenon. The brain completed the image. The flicker, the grain, the instability of light passing through film created something alive.

You participated in it.

Digital projection removed that.

The image is complete. Stable. Controlled.

You don’t meet it halfway.

You receive it.

And that same logic—control, predictability, completion—now defines the storytelling.

Less ambiguity. Less risk. Less authorship.

More delivery. More certainty. More control.

Which is why something like The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse feels almost foreign in comparison.

It’s quiet. It’s patient. It allows space.

It feels like a film that still believes in something—connection, empathy, vulnerability.

It doesn’t try to dominate your attention.

It trusts you.

And that trust is what’s been lost.

Because American cinema, at its best, didn’t just entertain.

It revealed.

It challenged.

It reflected a people back to themselves—honestly, imperfectly, sometimes uncomfortably.

Right now, that reflection is missing.

So audiences aren’t disappearing.

They’re recognizing the absence.

And until American cinema finds its voice again—not as product, but as expression—

the spectacle can grow as large as it wants.

It still won’t replace what’s been lost.

Oh definitely wait till it comes on my screen. I don't go to theaters alone unless it's a really great movie. Haven't heard of any lately. There's the weekly hype. Everybody knows that's manufactured hype to fill the spot, not real talent. Real talent comes along in an irregular pattern but the less intelligent people fall for the hype. That you're saying people are being more selective is confirmation that content is getting worse and people see through the weekly hype and want the content that is real and from the heart, not what's just filling a hole....this week's scary movie, this week's action adventure, this week's rom-com--do they still make rom-coms? In any case....this week's?? Please. Give me something unexpected. Stop trying to make a buck off me.

Ashley Renée Smith I believe strongly in seeing movies in the theater, and I'm always happy to hear when people are going. I think theaters had to adapt after the pandemic, some are serving food, have really cool curated usually retro edits before the film that has some sort of tie-in. Theaters know what they have to do to draw in an audience but we have to make sure we go, be with people and celebrate films the way they are intended. I also think people enjoy being out and away from their phones and computers. It's challenging for the theaters of course, I hope they continue to grab an audience.

Anthony McBride What' s the biggest factor to get you to go to the theater besides the movie?

Radoslav Isakov I grew up in Long Island and didn't take advantage of the drive in as much as I should. I went but not enough. Now they are no longer which is sad. I have always gone to the theater and The Cinema Arts Centre in Huntington has always shown indie films and the create a space where people can discuss the film afterwards and that to me is extremely valuable and they've proved that people really enjoy that. I think that is a huge things more theaters should do, from having a bar in the lobby to the films they show that illicit a conversation such as indies. What do you think?

Pat Alexander What brings you to the theater knowing it's pricy besides the movie?

Christopher Wells I think trailers, reviews and ads are factors that get me out to the movies. What about you?

I agree. I only go to the theater for the experience of seeing it on the big screen. The movies I look forward to seeing in theaters include Dune 3, The Avengers: Doomsday, Michael, and there are a few other blockbusters in between now and the end of this year.

Most films today are built on hype long before they’re actually released. Big studios invest heavily in marketing to generate excitement, and it works—people show up in huge numbers during the first few days.

But here’s the pattern I’ve noticed: for the first 2–5 days, most reviews are overwhelmingly positive. Why? Because it’s mostly fans watching the film during that phase. Their excitement and expectations often influence early reactions. Give it a week, though, and things start to shift. That’s when more neutral audiences step in, and you begin to see more honest, balanced reviews.

There are a couple of reasons behind this:

1. Pre-release hype pushes people to watch the film regardless of its actual quality.

2. Early reviews are often shaped by fan bias rather than critical evaluation.

Another thing worth considering is cost. A single theatre ticket for a major film—like something from the Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One or Dune franchise—can cost as much as a monthly subscription to platforms like Netflix or Amazon Prime Video, where you get access to a wide range of content.

So, it makes sense to be selective. Not every film deserves a theatre visit. It’s better to spend time and money on movies that genuinely offer something—whether that’s strong storytelling, immersive experience, or simply good entertainment—rather than watching something just because it’s trending.

Personally, I’d only consider going to theatres this year for films like Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Dune: Part Three, or Avengers: Doomsday—but even then, it ultimately depends on how they’re received after release.

A theater I frequent in Madrid offers a total experience.

The seats are huge, like low, comfortable armchairs with side tables, AND they don't offer food and beverages at a bar but with service at your seats up until ten minutes before the featured film.

People don't show up at the last minute... not even in Spain ha ha, because of this experience... funky music, cool things, funny things showing on the screen, in dim lights, but not completely. People are chatting and laughing, right up until the feature starts when the lights go off and the sound hits it!

After the show is when the bar/restaurant out front opens, and it's a buzz.

Yes, this comes with a premium price, but it's always packed. You have to order your tickets in advance.

Ashley Renée Smith, you’re absolutely right; audiences haven’t stopped going to theaters; they’ve just become far more selective. When a film feels like an experience, something designed for the biggest screen possible, people still show up in huge numbers. Dune selling out 70MM IMAX eight months early proves that theater isn’t dying; it’s becoming more intentional and event‑driven.

For me, there are a few upcoming films that I already know I want to see in theaters: Practical Magic 2, The Devil Wears Prada 2, and Steven Spielberg’s next film, Disclosure Day.

And there’s another layer to this conversation that often gets overlooked: the cost of going to the movies varies wildly depending on where you live. Here in Portugal, a night at the theater is around 7€ for a regular film and 11€ for IMAX, and if you want popcorn, add another 3.5€. For countries with higher average incomes, that might seem inexpensive, but here, with an average monthly income of about 1,500€, it’s not a small outing. People think carefully about what’s worth seeing on the big screen.

Christopher Wells AMC A-List makes seeing movies very affordable. Am I using all 4 visits per week? No. But even 3 visits per month brings the cost per movie down to $8-9 per watch which is reasonable. Watch 5-6 movies per month in theaters, I pay $3-4 per visit. That's a maximum experience to cost ratio.

What's get me into the theater most though is knowing great filmmakers are making exciting movies. Project Hail Mary was a stunning pre-summer blockbuster this year. Excellent auteurs like Stephen Soderbegh, Kristoffer Borgli, Gus van Sant have all released fascinating movies. There's been popcorn genre flicks galore between PRIMATE, SEND HELP, 28 YEARS LATER 2, SCREAM 7, READY OR NOT 2, and LEE CRONIN'S THE MUMMY. There's also been stupendous crime thrillers left and right like CRIME 101, HOW TO MAKE A KILLING, and THEY WILL KILL YOU, to go alongside amusing stunt movies like GOOD LUCK HAVE FUN DON'T DIE, THE MOMENT, and NIRVANA THE BAND THE SHOW THE MOVIE. The movies are literally back and there's something for everyone out there.

And like I mentioned , I do not have a 70 FOOT television in my house yet. 80 INCH - yes, but 70 FEET - no. I unfortunately still lack the space in my 2 bedroom townhouse.

What Damon Zwicker said! x5

Ashley Renée Smith That’s an interesting way of mitigating the risk of coming up against another blockbuster’s release with the use of presales.

The 'event' aspect definitely helps drive attendance. It does all make it even harder for smaller films to thrive and succeed on the big screen

Ashley Renée Smith I think you’re right, it’s less about theaters dying and more about audiences becoming selective. When a film feels like a true “event,” people still show up.

Dune: Part Three is a perfect example some stories are just meant for the big screen experience.

Personally, I’m really excited for both Dune: Part Three and The Odyssey those are definitely the kind of films I’d want to watch in theaters, not at home.

I love going to the theater and here in Brooklyn the movies always have people in the seats. I love it.

I absolutely think that audiences have become more selective, in large part due to the price of tickets and also the fact that often the marketing of movies is not reaching audiences as effectively as in the past. I find that the exceptions are the films that identify and engage directly with their core audience - through targeted social media, newsletters, etc. The days of just spending massively on trailers, billboards, and TV spots (and booking talent on talk shows) as a surefire route to success are over.