Distribution : Are Theaters Really “Dying”… or Are We Just Thinking About Them the Wrong Way? by Ashley Renée Smith

I rarely see a packed theater where I live, but I also mostly watch films in Original Version, and unfortunately those screenings tend to attract much smaller audiences.

What I see instead is that people still show up for the cheapest, safest, most heavily marketed films, while more distinctive work often gets ignored. I’ve even seen audiences walk out of something like "Project Hail Mary" because it asked for more attention than they were willing to give.

To me, that is part of the real problem: cinema has become expensive enough to feel like a luxury. You cannot go see a movie every week anymore if you ache for it. And the overall quality of what dominates mainstream screens often doesn’t justify the high prizes. Too much space goes to reboots, sequels, and recognition titles. I’m already dreading films like "Practical Magic 2" or "The Devil Wears Prada 2". I am gonna watch them at home but I am scared that they favor star appeal over storytelling.

The places that still make cinema feel alive to me are the smaller theaters showing some indie films. The problem is that many people barely know those films exist.

The next movies I am excited to see are: "The Wizard of the Kremlin", "The History of Sound", "I Love Boosters", and "The Love That Remains".

I wonder if the new Rocky Horror Picture Show reboot on Broadway will get a big screen remake. Let’s do the Time Warp again!!

Excellent points. I'd add that one under-talked about reason the "theaters are dying" narrative even exists isn't because audiences stopped showing up, it's because the theatrical middle class is vanishing. Franchise IP accounted for 73% of domestic revenue last year [AMW Film Statistics] and IMAX alone pulled $1.28 billion globally [SlashFilm], so the top end is thriving while everything else struggles to justify a theatrical run. Dune 70mm tickets being scalped for up to $1,000 [Dark Horizons] and the domestic box office being up 15.2% this year [Fortune] prove your event-driven theory exactly, but that success is masking the mid-tier films that are quietly disappearing from screens. Theaters aren't dying, but they might be hollowing out from the middle. Personally, The Odyssey in IMAX is the one I'm already planning around, which kind of proves the point all by itself.

The dark room, the shared experience, the complete focus, the pick n mix! Some films are just better on a big screen, and the occasion of going is still wonderful. But it's expensive. People are time-poor. And they know it'll be on their TV so soon, which makes waiting much easier. The 'event' aspect definitely helps drive attendance. It does all make it even harder for smaller films - though I've been at some packed screenings of those too, which is always extra special.

I think you're exactly right—theaters aren't dying, they're just becoming more of a destination for event cinema, and that shift actually plays to the strength of younger audiences. Gen Z is currently the demographic with the highest rate of moviegoing, and they consistently show up for films that feel like shared cultural moments: Dune, Scream, Project Hail Mary. We're not abandoning theaters, but other audiences are more selective, especially if they don't buy into the subscription theater chains offer. They want spectacle, community, and something worth leaving the house for.

Thanks for this discussion Ashley Renée Smith. Personally I don’t think theaters are dying but like so much of our world it’s certainly going thru major changes and will continue to evolve like it always has. For my family, the movie theater has become an experience that is rare and treasured. Mostly because of the price point. For a family of five, we spend almost $100 with shared popcorn. That isn’t sustainable for high attendance numbers with gas and food prices soaring. That being said, the feeling we get watching on the big screen can’t be duplicated. I really wish there were more discount theaters. Imagine all the films we’d be able to see that didn’t get huge premiers!

Ashley Renée Smith I think there is an overall shakeup in the industry, but I believe the cinematic experience can never be replaced. If so, why are we, as members of the Producers Guild of America, flocking to see the Award contenders on the big screen? There is nothing like the shared experience of something special. The issue is the ticket prices and the high cost of popcorn, etc. And just the overall laziness of the Studios and Theatre owners to bring back the feeling of the experience.

I agree with Whitney. They're only event driven because prices for tickets and concessions are legitimately absurd. No popcorn or soda should ever cost more than $5. They're price gouging a bit too much this stage.

But still, until I can fit a 70 foot screen in my living room, there will always be a need for movie theaters. Movies are meant to be watched on big screens. They're way more awesome that way.

It is refreshing to read today's LA Times piece ""Movie Theaters Finally Emerge From the Shadows of the Pandemic". Box office is up 23% from a year ago. Other positive stats and observations touch upon the big issue -- are audiences still around? Obviously the answer is yes; they just need a reason to spend $100+ for tickets, parking and popcorn versus watching a new Netflix release at home for $19.99 (ad-free). And therein lies the question for screenwriters who are not hired to write the latest IP reboot (most of you) or who are not filmmakers with clout who can get their own original ideas greenlit (most of you) -- how do I get noticed (read) by the industry so that my project can get bought/financed/packaged? I'll keep the answer simple as it relates to how I manage my clients' careers. Give yourself the best shot to be read by the largest number of producers because this means the greatest chance for new fans. And fans (the other "F' word) is what you want. For many, this answer says it all as it reflects how genre and high concept (re original spec scripts) will always have appeal to producers and buyers because there is a long history of genre and high concept original ideas connecting with audiences. Call it data, call it self delusion, call it dealing w fear. Call it whatever you want whether you agree with the decision makers. As a rep, I call it like I see it. Give my clients the best shot to be read by the largest swath of producers because this gives my clients the greatest opportunity to have their project noticed and possibly bought/financed/packaged. "International B.O." weighs more heavily than ever in the decision-making for they who write checks (buyers/financiers) and so an understanding of this mindset should not be dismissed as you bang your head against the wall re what to write next. Of course there are countless examples of misses (audiences didn't show up) re genre and high concept but there is always data to support the counter. Which is not my intention to be a contrarian. You need not be a gambler to understand this industry is a numbers game in so many ways. And so stacking the odds in your favor is a smart strategy. Or at least not a dumb one. Having said this, nobody knows anything and so you must write what YOU are excited and passionate about. Voice absolutely matters in terms of winning fans of your writing. But all things being equal, if there is a chance to give yourself any edge in the very challenging landscape of getting your script read/noticed, why not at least consider this strategy for your next original spec script. Then again nobody knows anything.

You’re right in that the theater experience isn’t disappearing but merely evolving. There is truly nothing that can replace the theatrical experience, especially for a major cinematic spectacle like the films you’ve mentioned. As a producer, it is great to see not only the theaters evolve, but also the filmmakers and audiences. It is forcing creatives, producers, and execs to think outside the box and create films that maximize the audience experience in way of visuals, sound, color, story, and its impact overall. It’s also refreshing to know that audiences are responding to that; they recognize certain films simply NEED to be experienced on the big screen. Let's keep making those!

I think that shift toward event-driven viewing is real — but it also raises a different question on the development side.

If audiences are becoming more selective about what they show up for, then it’s not just about scale or spectacle — it’s about whether the story is built to hold attention as an experience, not just as content.

Some projects feel designed for immersion — they create a kind of sustained pressure that justifies the theatrical space.

Others might still work well, but they don’t demand it.

So it’s almost less about theaters “dying” and more about a separation happening at the structural level — between stories that can carry that weight, and those that naturally move toward smaller screens.

Curious how much you’re seeing that distinction in development — where projects start to be shaped differently depending on how they’re expected to be experienced.